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　　摘要：近年来政府积极研拟总量管制相关策略，以弥补过去单以浓度为法规标准的缺失，兼顾排放量对空气品质的影响，执行该策略，首先需订定总量及分配标准，同时考量公平性及效率，并需考量空间及个别污染物情况等因子，只是目前并无固定的流程来决定。
　　本研究因而发展一个系统化程序，来决定空气中硫氧化物的许可排放量。该程序首先评估某地区在不考量外区量、污染排放不确定性、误差及未知量等影响下的容许增量，由于以扩散模式模拟所需电脑分析时间的限制，本研究以空气品质较恶劣的代表天数中，选取类似全年风场的代表风场共36天，并利用ISC模式进行扩散模式，然後分析及比较在不同的等去除率下，日平均与小时不合乎容许增量计算基准的受体点情形，决定日及小时平均不合格比率，作为决定总量的依据，但由于等去除率法的经济效率较差，故本研究另以每一污染源对所有不合格受体点的总影响定义为污染源的显着影响系数（significant impact coefficient,SIC），再进而基于SIC、排放量、及人口密度等因子分别建立各污染源新的去除率决定函数，以得到经济效率较佳的总排放量及各污染源容许排放量。
　　本研究以某地区为案例区，并依某公司所建立的排放资料进行模拟，比较与讨论等去除率法及本研究所提SIC等方法所决定的总量及分配量的优缺点与适用性，结果发现以SIC相关因子决定的去除函数较等去除率法有明显较高的成本效益，至少减少10%以上总削减量，即可于较严格不合格率条件下符合要求，且由于考量hot spot问题，可求得较适当的总量管制基准量，以利于推行总量管制。

　　Analyses of Emission Allowances for SOx Total-mass-based Control Strategy
　　Abstract：Total-mass-based emission management （TEM） is an important air quality protection strategy recently initiated. This new strategy is intended to redeem the shortcoming of the traditional concentration-based regulation implemented in the past. Before implementing such a strategy, appropriate total-mass and emission allowance allocation should be efficiently determined based on a desired air quality level. Currently, no widely accepted procedure is available to determine total-mass and emission allowance. A systematic procedure is therefore proposed in this study. The total-mass allowance is determined by the uniform-removal （UR） method, based on daily- and hourly-average concentrations simulated by the ISCST model and violation ratios for critical receptors. Since allowance determined by the UR method is not economically efficient, the significant impact coefficient （SIC） for total pollution contribution on all critical receptors from each source is defined in this study. Emission allowance determined based on SICs and population density can improve both economic efficiency and exposure risk, while compared with the UR method. A case study for the Tao-hsu-miao airshed SOx control is implemented. Results obtained from the UR and SIC methods are compared and discussed for their advantage, disadvantage, and effectiveness. According to the results, results obtained from the SIC method are more cost efficient than those obtained from the UR method, about 10% reduction for the studied case. Further, the SIC method can significantly improve the air quality at locations that seriously suffer from air pollution （hot-spot）。 The proposed SIC method is expected to provide appropriate emission allowance to facilitate the implementation of the TEM strategy.

　　目录
　　第一章 前言
　　1.1 研究缘起
　　1.2 研究目的
　　1.3 论文内容
　　第二章 文献回顾
　　2.1总量管制与初期工作
　　2.2总量决定原则与考量
　　2.3排放权分配原则及考量因子
　　2.4其它考量因子
　　第三章 研究方法
　　3.1容许增量与空品风险
　　3.2 去除率决定与流程
　　第四章 案例探讨及结果与讨论
　　4.1案例区基本资料
　　4.2排放总量与空气品质风险
　　4.3排放去除与分配方法
　　4.4结果与讨论
　　第五章 结论与建议
　　5.1结论
　　5.2建议
　　参考文献
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